Microsoft's Origami Project Demystified

Microsoft Misses By A Mile

Bill Gates first showed off the concept of an ultramobile, handheld PC about a year ago. For the last month, there has been a ton of hype, speculation, and plenty of smoke and mirrors. Microsoft even set up a website (not their usual routine) that teased us with weekly updates, and images of everything but the actual device. Heck, they even had the TNL crew following the story.

I’ve been around the web, and have pieced together what exactly is the “origami project” after all this. The device is indeed a portable, ultra mini PC. It takes the tablet pc concept one step smaller, and more mobile. At the CeBit conference, prototypes from Samsung and Asus debuted. The specs we know are:
- 900 MHz Intel low voltage processor
- 40 GB hard drive
- USB ports x 2
- Built in TV antenna
- Compact Flash memory slot
- 7” color screen, 800 x 480
- VGA out
- Audio out
- 512 MB RAM
- Windows XP, Tablet edition
- WiFi

Let's take a look at why I think they missed the mark. First of all, in the era of $500 notebooks, the $1200 premium for this device is simply too high. By a factor of 2. The specs are state of the art for five years ago. They are out of date by today's standards. I'm completely puzzled why they included a Compact Flash slot, and left out the more current Secure Digital media. While these were prototypes on display at the show, apparently they could barely muster a two hour battery life. Most modern notebooks can easily match, and even exceed that running time. The one feature that stands out is the inclusion of two USB ports (one on each side on the Samsung model). Unfortunately, they are needed to attach an external optical player in order to watch a DVD. This is simply too much gear to match a Video iPod abilities.

Microsoft misjudged the market, and developed a product to fill a niche that probably doesn't exist. Can an origami project device replace your notebook? No, unless all you do is surf the net, and can live with the small screen. Therefore, you still need to own a notebook for computing on the go. On the other hand, these devices are too large to be able to fit into a pocket. They are not quite portable. So these devices are for users who require an outdated notebook, smaller than a notebook, but not fitting into a pocket. Outside of a select few who have to have the latest gadget, I sincerely doubt that this has mass market appeal.

What do road warriors want? They've already been trading in their handhelds and cellphones for smart phones. The compact portability and feature rich devices will not be unseated by this clunky ultra mobile pc. I also see Apple with their next generation iPod with a full screen moving beyond "just" a music and video player. Add in WiFi and a pen based interface, and Apple could be dominating the handheld market like they currently dominate music. If they could keep it within the current specs it should fit into a pocket, and maintain its battery life that can go all day.

In the meantime, Microsoft, with its ultra mobile pc, has built an intriguing device that fills a niche so specific, I doubt it even exists. All is not lost though. The Redmond folks have a long tradition of releasing half baked ideas, adding in some "borrowed" concepts (that should have been there in the first place), and finally producing something worth parting with some cash over. I'm off to surf the web; maybe I can uncover the origami project 2.0 site...

--Jonas