Some Reasons Why the Zune Will Stumble
Microsoft is putting quite a bit of effort into their new music player, the Zune. As the news has dribbled out, we've been able to piece together what the player is able to offer. In my view, while the Zune may be a decent first attempt for a company with no experience in portable audio, I think it's miles away from being an "iPod Killer" (arguably the 2nd most overused phrase of the year, right after "Web 2.0").
Anyway, let's write up a list of why the Zune is lackluster, and will have lukewarm sales (at best...). Feel free to add your own reason(s) below to what I came up with.
1- It's Brown
Cool electronics come in colors of a limited palette. Start with silver, black and white. Add in bright blue, green and pink. Then repeat. Beige desktops are so last century, so I'm baffled why they're pushing the Zune in "hyper-beige" brown.
2- Hard Drivin' Makes It Fat
To make a sexy piece of electronics, it needs to be slim. Witness the Nano, and to a lesser extent, the Sansa e200 series. When we factor in the inherent durability of flash memory compared to a hard drive, the Zune's 30 GB hard drive makes even less sense. By using a hard drive, the Zune gets the svelte lines of a brick.
3- One Size Fits None
Just about any company that has had any success in the portable media player market has had a range of products at various price points with different features. This has always been true of the iPod line, as well as rivals Creative and SanDisk. Like anything else, consumers want choices, and one model is simply too limiting to have wide appeal.
4- Thirty Gigs Is Too Crowded
By endowing the Zune with a 30 gig hard drive, it puts it in direct competition with the smaller Video iPod which is priced very aggressively after its recent redesign. If they made the Zune 40 to 60 GB's, a capacity that Apple is not offering, and priced it close to the 30 GB Video iPod, I'm sure that potential buyers would give it a closer look for the extra storage capacity.
5- Wireless Issues
I've thought for a while that an iPod could really benefit from a WiFi connection. While I first thought the Zune's wireless feature was a great idea, I think that the restrictions are simply too onerous. With only 3 days or 3 plays of a song, it becomes more frustration than cool. Until the hack-a-day folks develop a bypass, I don't see this as a compelling reason to own a Zune (recalling that much of the Xbox's sales was driven by the "hack factor"). In addition, if there aren't too many Zunes sold, there won't be anyone to swap tracks with anyway.
Now if the Zune could resynchronize itself to my WiFi desktop, with no cable, that would garner an ubercool nomination!
6- No iZunes
One of the best features of the Apple solution is their iTunes software. It works well, has a great interface, and rips tracks well, including variable rate MP3's. It works so well that I often use it, and I've never even owned an iPod. Sorry folks, but Windows Media Player, ubiquitously included with every copy of Windoze, isn't quite as good.
7- No iZunes Store
The other ingredient that makes the Apple solution so compelling is the iTunes Store. There's simply no way that Microsoft can replicate the expansive catalog of audio, and now video content. All-you-can-eat monthly subscriptions (like from Rhapsody) may be a viable alternative for those with smaller music collections. However, in America, it's more about ownership than a lifetime of rental. Besides, plenty of other players support subscription music so it's hardly a Zune exclusive anyway.
8- Image Is Everything
The music market, for generations now, has been dominated by the tastes of teenagers. The audio players also cater to the needs and tastes of the teenage crowd. Apple has positioned itself into this demographic quite well with its advertising campaigns ("think different").
Microsoft, best known for Windows, is about as exciting as "your father's Oldsmobile." I view them as a necessary monopoly, like the utility company. Not exactly teenagerly hip and Apple white cool. The dirty brown color isn't helping anything either. Unless Microsoft has some really awesome ad campaign up their sleeve, I don't see the Zune as a "must have" among the teenage crowd.
9- Critical Mass
Apple's iPod line has it, and everyone else wants the critical mass of an 85% market share. With it comes the idea that an iPod is the de facto music player to own, kind of like Kleenex tissues and Xerox copiers, Apple has the market cornered. The other factor that comes with market dominance are the white accessories that everyone makes for the iPod. Whether it's a speaker setup, a car holder or a snazzy case, there's many accessory options to choose, from a variey of manufacturers. We're a long ways away from duplicating this type of "iPod economy" with the Zune, or any other player.
Go ahead and add another reason or two below...
--Jonas
Technorati tags:
audio, iPod killer, microsoft, mp3 player, portable audio, Zune
Anyway, let's write up a list of why the Zune is lackluster, and will have lukewarm sales (at best...). Feel free to add your own reason(s) below to what I came up with.
1- It's BrownCool electronics come in colors of a limited palette. Start with silver, black and white. Add in bright blue, green and pink. Then repeat. Beige desktops are so last century, so I'm baffled why they're pushing the Zune in "hyper-beige" brown.
2- Hard Drivin' Makes It Fat
To make a sexy piece of electronics, it needs to be slim. Witness the Nano, and to a lesser extent, the Sansa e200 series. When we factor in the inherent durability of flash memory compared to a hard drive, the Zune's 30 GB hard drive makes even less sense. By using a hard drive, the Zune gets the svelte lines of a brick.
3- One Size Fits None
Just about any company that has had any success in the portable media player market has had a range of products at various price points with different features. This has always been true of the iPod line, as well as rivals Creative and SanDisk. Like anything else, consumers want choices, and one model is simply too limiting to have wide appeal.
4- Thirty Gigs Is Too Crowded
By endowing the Zune with a 30 gig hard drive, it puts it in direct competition with the smaller Video iPod which is priced very aggressively after its recent redesign. If they made the Zune 40 to 60 GB's, a capacity that Apple is not offering, and priced it close to the 30 GB Video iPod, I'm sure that potential buyers would give it a closer look for the extra storage capacity.
5- Wireless Issues
I've thought for a while that an iPod could really benefit from a WiFi connection. While I first thought the Zune's wireless feature was a great idea, I think that the restrictions are simply too onerous. With only 3 days or 3 plays of a song, it becomes more frustration than cool. Until the hack-a-day folks develop a bypass, I don't see this as a compelling reason to own a Zune (recalling that much of the Xbox's sales was driven by the "hack factor"). In addition, if there aren't too many Zunes sold, there won't be anyone to swap tracks with anyway.
Now if the Zune could resynchronize itself to my WiFi desktop, with no cable, that would garner an ubercool nomination!
6- No iZunes
One of the best features of the Apple solution is their iTunes software. It works well, has a great interface, and rips tracks well, including variable rate MP3's. It works so well that I often use it, and I've never even owned an iPod. Sorry folks, but Windows Media Player, ubiquitously included with every copy of Windoze, isn't quite as good.
7- No iZunes Store
The other ingredient that makes the Apple solution so compelling is the iTunes Store. There's simply no way that Microsoft can replicate the expansive catalog of audio, and now video content. All-you-can-eat monthly subscriptions (like from Rhapsody) may be a viable alternative for those with smaller music collections. However, in America, it's more about ownership than a lifetime of rental. Besides, plenty of other players support subscription music so it's hardly a Zune exclusive anyway.
8- Image Is Everything
The music market, for generations now, has been dominated by the tastes of teenagers. The audio players also cater to the needs and tastes of the teenage crowd. Apple has positioned itself into this demographic quite well with its advertising campaigns ("think different").
Microsoft, best known for Windows, is about as exciting as "your father's Oldsmobile." I view them as a necessary monopoly, like the utility company. Not exactly teenagerly hip and Apple white cool. The dirty brown color isn't helping anything either. Unless Microsoft has some really awesome ad campaign up their sleeve, I don't see the Zune as a "must have" among the teenage crowd.
9- Critical Mass
Apple's iPod line has it, and everyone else wants the critical mass of an 85% market share. With it comes the idea that an iPod is the de facto music player to own, kind of like Kleenex tissues and Xerox copiers, Apple has the market cornered. The other factor that comes with market dominance are the white accessories that everyone makes for the iPod. Whether it's a speaker setup, a car holder or a snazzy case, there's many accessory options to choose, from a variey of manufacturers. We're a long ways away from duplicating this type of "iPod economy" with the Zune, or any other player.
Go ahead and add another reason or two below...
--Jonas
Technorati tags:
audio, iPod killer, microsoft, mp3 player, portable audio, Zune
posted by digitaldoc at 9:00 AM
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