You Say You Want A Revolution?

Is the Inkjet Printer Market Heading For Some Serious Change?

If I think back to my first inkjet printer from 1997, not much has changed in the inkjet printer market. Sure, its 7 pages per minute output has gone up to 25, and the dots per inch have increased. Along the way, many printers turned into all-in-one devices that featured scanning, digital media readers, and even LCD screens. However, the basic idea of selling the printer at a loss, and then to make the profits on the cartridges has held true. Also, that the cheaper printers have the cartridges with the least amount of ink, and in turn the costliest output per page has also held true. However, after a decade of this basic business model, I believe there will be some change in the next year or two.

What's driving this change? The printer manufacturers are facing increasing competition from third party cartridge makers. Even Wal-Mart carries a full line of cartridges made by folks other than the printer makers. Also, there are plenty of those inkjet refill storefronts around that can top off the ink for less. Finally, this is too large of a market, and the free economy will eventually win, even if it has been put off by clever manufacturers.

Where's my evidence of change? First up is what Kodak is doing. They were sidelined by the major printer manufacturers, and now they want to jump back into the foray. While the hands on tests of their new printer line haven't been done yet, they are promising that the cost of printing will be halved. Whether or not this is true, a lot of folks paid attention, and this generated a lot of interest. If Kodak can use this strategy to grab market share, the others are bound to follow.

The next threat to inkjet printers are their laser cousins. While laser printers were traditionally business workhorses with large footprints and only black output, this is clearly changing. In the last year or two the personal lasers have gained significant popularity. I made the switch to one, and so have plenty of others. For under $100, the crisp laser output is hard to beat, and the cost per page is plenty more affordable than an inkjet. However, many folks want their color printing. There have been color laser printers, and they are now becoming quite affordable. A quick search on NewEgg finds that the least expensive color laser is currently $259, and there are a few more that are under $300. I don't expect the prices to drop like a rock in this segment, but as they creep their way towards the $200 mark, I believe that sales will increase for these color lasers. In fact, this may currently be the biggest threat that the inkjets face from a long term perspective.

The last new technology is from a rather unknown company called Memjet. Recently, they have gotten the buzz with a series of printers that are super fast, and their output is downright cheap. While they use a modified inkjet technology, they are talking about much larger print heads. This results in 30 photo prints per minute from a printer that sells for a projected $150. They are also promising text output from two cents a page, and color from six cents a page. While it will be late 2007 before we can see this technology, it is promising to say the least. Seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if Canon, HP and Epson all chipped in to buy this new company and shut it down, or get their patents. From the video of this, these printers are leaping ahead of any competition by a giant step.

It will be quite interesting to see where inkjet technology goes over the next few years. It would appear that it will have to become more price competitive to maintain its dominance of the home market long term. I'm sure that at the lowest end, they will be around for quite some time, but in the $200 market segment, there should be a lot of competition for that spot next to your desktop computer. Hopefully there will be less of a "ca-chink" sound every time we press the print button.

--Jonas