Nine Technology Predictions For 2008
Another year gone by as we head into 2008. I was originally going to post about how I did on last year's tech predictions, but you can read them here, and I think you'll agree that I did better than most (and if you don't, this is my little corner of cyberspace so whatever). I did want to share what I was foreseeing for the upcoming year.
As I look to 2008, I see a year more of evolution, than of revolution. I also see more transition to than anything else. In that, I mean that there will be more of the same, mostly with more features packed into the same forms. I also see the groundwork being laid for some real innovation, but that won't be till 2009 and beyond. Let's get more specific:
1- Quad Core Chips
With the introduction of AMD's Phenom, and Intel's Q6600 both at under $300, this could be the year that Quad cores slip under the $200 mark. While I'm not expecting a $55 Celeron Quad too soon, 2008 should be the year that the quad becomes a more common chip among the enthusiast crowd as they seek more performance beyond dual cores. Also, single core chips will fade into the annals of technology except at the very lowest end.
2- Windows Vista
History will remind us that XP wasn't exactly bulletproof when it came out. It's only with the service packs that it became considerably more stable. I think the same will happen with Vista, and all indicators point to Vista SP1 being ready early in the year. Hopefully, this will be the needed fix.
3- Wireless
I'm actually not that optimistic that 2008 will see N networking being introduced. Even if they come out with the final specification, it will be a while before we can buy the actual products, so we're still stuck with the montage of "draft N" stuff, or just stick with the older gear.
Also in wireless, WiMax will continue to be talked about, but not really used. The auction of the TV spectrum will also be big news, but don't expect the products anytime soon as this slice of the electromagnetic spectrum isn't being vacated till Feb '09 at the earliest when analog TV goes off the airwaves.
4- Media Players
Apple, now spurred by the competition of the Zune, will get more innovative than last year's breed (ok, the iTouch was innovative, but not that practical, at least to me). I think the iPhone 2 will be even more potent. The iTouch 2 will be bumped up to a "get real" 32 gigs of flash storage. The iPod Classic will get a bigger screen, which is what the folks really wanted this year.
The Zune will increase the hard drive size, but I think the real focus will be on improving the flash line which has not really stood out from the competition in this round.
5- TV's
LCD will continue to outsell plasma by a healthy margin. Next gen technologies, like OLED or laser TV are still several years away. Some folks will continue to prepare for the end of analog TV in 2009, and the digital transition. I still need to get that new antenna...
6- Handhelds
Palm will continue to flounder. The smartphone (unfortunately) replaced the stand alone handheld. I expect to see some impressive new smartphones to compete with the iPhone. Now only if T-Mobile could (a) get me better coverage, and (b) make the data plan not cost an arm & a leg, I'd be a happy camper, but I'm not holding my breath for either to happen.
7- Ports
USB will soldier on. HDMI gains momentum both for TV's, and for computer displays. eSATA will also gain popularity. FireWire gets relegated to niche status.
8- Disc Format Wars
Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will continue to duke it out, but I don't think there will be a clear winner. We'll probably see more products that support both formats, but I don't think they will reach affordability until 2009 or beyond.
9- Printers
With B&W laser printers priced in the disposable price point, and color lasers skirting below $200, I see them eating into the inkjet market as savvy consumers realize that printer ink is so seriously overpriced. If the color lasers can get down to $150 consistently, they'll take off in the home market, which I hope to see for the back to school sales.
Ok, there you have it. Like I said, more of a year of evolution laying the groundwork for better things to come in the years ahead. You can count on all of us at TechNudge to guide you through all of this.
Jonas
As I look to 2008, I see a year more of evolution, than of revolution. I also see more transition to than anything else. In that, I mean that there will be more of the same, mostly with more features packed into the same forms. I also see the groundwork being laid for some real innovation, but that won't be till 2009 and beyond. Let's get more specific:
1- Quad Core Chips
With the introduction of AMD's Phenom, and Intel's Q6600 both at under $300, this could be the year that Quad cores slip under the $200 mark. While I'm not expecting a $55 Celeron Quad too soon, 2008 should be the year that the quad becomes a more common chip among the enthusiast crowd as they seek more performance beyond dual cores. Also, single core chips will fade into the annals of technology except at the very lowest end.
2- Windows Vista
History will remind us that XP wasn't exactly bulletproof when it came out. It's only with the service packs that it became considerably more stable. I think the same will happen with Vista, and all indicators point to Vista SP1 being ready early in the year. Hopefully, this will be the needed fix.
3- Wireless
I'm actually not that optimistic that 2008 will see N networking being introduced. Even if they come out with the final specification, it will be a while before we can buy the actual products, so we're still stuck with the montage of "draft N" stuff, or just stick with the older gear.
Also in wireless, WiMax will continue to be talked about, but not really used. The auction of the TV spectrum will also be big news, but don't expect the products anytime soon as this slice of the electromagnetic spectrum isn't being vacated till Feb '09 at the earliest when analog TV goes off the airwaves.
4- Media Players
Apple, now spurred by the competition of the Zune, will get more innovative than last year's breed (ok, the iTouch was innovative, but not that practical, at least to me). I think the iPhone 2 will be even more potent. The iTouch 2 will be bumped up to a "get real" 32 gigs of flash storage. The iPod Classic will get a bigger screen, which is what the folks really wanted this year.
The Zune will increase the hard drive size, but I think the real focus will be on improving the flash line which has not really stood out from the competition in this round.
5- TV's
LCD will continue to outsell plasma by a healthy margin. Next gen technologies, like OLED or laser TV are still several years away. Some folks will continue to prepare for the end of analog TV in 2009, and the digital transition. I still need to get that new antenna...
6- Handhelds
Palm will continue to flounder. The smartphone (unfortunately) replaced the stand alone handheld. I expect to see some impressive new smartphones to compete with the iPhone. Now only if T-Mobile could (a) get me better coverage, and (b) make the data plan not cost an arm & a leg, I'd be a happy camper, but I'm not holding my breath for either to happen.
7- Ports
USB will soldier on. HDMI gains momentum both for TV's, and for computer displays. eSATA will also gain popularity. FireWire gets relegated to niche status.
8- Disc Format Wars
Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will continue to duke it out, but I don't think there will be a clear winner. We'll probably see more products that support both formats, but I don't think they will reach affordability until 2009 or beyond.
9- Printers
With B&W laser printers priced in the disposable price point, and color lasers skirting below $200, I see them eating into the inkjet market as savvy consumers realize that printer ink is so seriously overpriced. If the color lasers can get down to $150 consistently, they'll take off in the home market, which I hope to see for the back to school sales.
Ok, there you have it. Like I said, more of a year of evolution laying the groundwork for better things to come in the years ahead. You can count on all of us at TechNudge to guide you through all of this.
Jonas
Labels: new technology, tech predictions
posted by digitaldoc at 7:23 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home