Premium Hi Def

I found this report today that talks about the predicted growth of hi def television. More specifically, it talks about how many more folks are going to be paying for the premium content to feed their TV set. However, I'm not so sure that it is this simple.

First of all, there are plenty of folks that have a hi def TV, but haven't figured out that there signal is still analog. Sure, they realize that the picture isn't that good, but I hardly think they're clamoring to buy the most expensive subscription. They probably will only upgrade when forced to do anything.

Then there are the folks that are upgrading their tuners with a new external box so that they can use their old CRT set. Again, I don't see them getting premium content soon. Those coupon boxes that folks are getting while tuning in a digital signal are 480, and not hi def.

Also, there are some folks out there that use an antenna for the locals to get hi def. Many report that the OTA signals, direct from the networks, are among the least compressed of any feed. They may supplement with a satellite plan, sans locals, and sans hi def. Again, there folks are not premium hi def subscribers.

Finally, over the next five years, it's a safe bet that we'll see more online video, not less. Video on the internet is still in the early stage, but it's already made a big impact 9not to mention the ISP's constantly whining about the bandwidth used). With higher quality online offerings, there will be less reason to become a premium hi def subscriber.

If we look at things more objectively, and start to account for more of the factors, divining the future of television is anything but simple. Stick around, it'll get more interesting, I'm sure.